Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's decision to step aside
after a snap election left him unable to form a new government has
let some steam out of a seven-month political crisis, but the drama
is far from over.
The main opposition parties are boycotting by-elections on April
23 meant to complete last weekend's snap poll called by Thaksin to
rout critics who accused him of corruption and abuse of power. They
want political reforms first.
Most of the 39 seats, all but one in the southern opposition
stronghold, could remain unfilled.
Only a full parliament can elect a new prime minister to replace
Thaksin, but parliament must convene within 30 days of the April 2
poll.
Meanwhile, Thaksin says he will take "a rest" but retain
leadership of his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, a move his enemies say
will allow him to pull strings from behind the scenes.
Months of hard negotiations lie ahead and the outcome is
uncertain.
Following are some possible scenarios:
Rolling by-elections
The Election Commission says re-runs in 39 constituencies are
open to the three parties that boycotted the April 2 general
election. The opposition wants meaningful political reforms
first.
If the by-elections are inconclusive, the EC could ask the
Constitutional Court to allow parliament to meet while more polls
are held, analysts say.
But that could trigger protests against the court which has
handed Thaksin two favorable rulings in the past.
"Whether the Constitutional Court, the involuntary power broker
in the present political situation, would play along with the TRT
remains to be seen," said Kim Eng Securities.
Protests resume
Street protesters outside Government House have packed up. But
they left behind yet another ultimatum for Thaksin -- leave
politics completely, or the protests resume on April 30.
"Thaksin will no longer be the prime minister, but he is still
the leader of the party and will bring in his nominee to implement
his policies, which we won't accept," media mogul and rally leader
Sondhi Limthongkul said.
But April is the hottest month of the year and opinion polls
show most Bangkok residents growing weary of the protests and the
disruptions they cause.
Constitutional reform
Critics say the 1997 "People's" Constitution needs a rewrite to
close loopholes used by Thaksin to undermine checks and balances
and subvert the independence of watchdog agencies.
That process will take six months to a year and involve a
"neutral" committee of former charter drafters, judges and legal
experts, says Bhokin Bhalakula, the former speaker of parliament
and lawyer who is likely to oversee the process.
The opposition has not spelled out what reforms it wants, but
analysts say it may seek to curb the powers of the prime
minister.
A rule requiring election candidates to belong to a party for 90
days -- designed to prevent the political bed-hopping that fostered
shaky coalitions -- may also come under scrutiny by unhappy
factions within Thaksin's party.
"There will be a nasty war during the political reform process
as a lot of politicians want to change this 90-day rule," the
Nation newspaper said.
Royal intervention
June 9 is a date that looms large in Thailand.
Thaksin cited King Bhumibol Adulyadej's 60th anniversary on the
throne as the main reason for stepping aside ahead of celebrations
to be attended by royalty from around the world.
"I ask every party, whether you love or hate me, to please think
of the core of the country. The king," Thaksin said in urging Thais
to reunite.
But by playing the "royal card," he put the ball in the
opposition court to match the gesture to end the crisis before the
royal anniversary.
"The king has been used as a reason for compromise and to
restore stability," said Bob Broadfoot of Political and Economic
Risk Consultancy.
"To me it implies that if they are not really careful, the
opposition can overplay their hand because they are no longer going
against Thaksin, they are going against the king."
Thaksin's future
Thaksin is down, but not out yet.
From his post as party leader, analysts say Thaksin is likely to
wield power through a puppet successor, widely expected to be
either Bhokin or Commerce Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.
"Government policy will remain the same under his guidance, and
as head of the ruling party, he could exercise continued large
scale authority, particularly if planned reforms to weaken the
powers of the prime minister come to fruition," said Elizabeth
Mills of Global Insight.
Other analysts say a key challenge will be holding together a
political juggernaut that won the biggest majorities in Thai
history.
"If they didn't have this 90-day rule, lots of people would have
quit," said Christopher Bruton of Dataconsult Ltd.
"I'm sure we are going to see a lot of back-door negotiations in
the coming weeks. Thai politics is very factional and its quite
unnatural for a party like Thai Rak Thai to hold together in this
way."
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(Chinadaily.com via agencies April 7, 2006)
