With many doubts and uncertain factors until the eve of Sunday,
Thailand's parliamentary election will go on within twelve hours as
many people have closely observed the snap election since last
month's House dissolution.
However, many analysts predict that the election is unlikely to
be end-point of the political turmoil since many conflict elements
still root deeply in Thai political arena, which can not be simply
resolved by vote.
Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a telecoms tycoon-
turned-politician, called for a snap election on Feb. 24 amid a
credibility crisis since his family's 73.3 billion baht (US$ 1.9
billion) sale of the Thaksin-founded Shin Corp to Singapore's
Temasek Holdings late January.
Since then, by boycotting the April 2 polls, the opposition
parties have allied themselves to a mass movement determined to
force Thaksin to resign and called on voters to tick the "absent
ion" boxes that appear on all Thai ballot papers.
Somchai Srisuthiyakorn, coordinator of the People's Network for
Elections (P-Net), a non governmental organization, predicted that
since many "absent ion" boxes will appear during Sunday's
elections, by-elections will definitely be held following and the
first House of Representatives session will not be able to convene
within 30 days as required by law.
According to the constitution of Thailand, all the 500 seats of
parliament's lower house must be filled for a prime minister to be
elected and a government formed. And even in an uncontested
constituency, a candidate must win 20 percent of the eligible vote
for that particular seat to win.
Therefore, analysts estimated that Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT)
party will struggle to meet this 20 percent threshold in at least
60 constituencies and by-elections would be held in these
constituencies where only one TRT candidate is contesting.
There is also a high possibility that by-elections would be held
more than one times in some of these constituencies, making it
impossible for the House of Representatives to hold its first
meeting within 30 days of the election as required by law, Somchai
said.
Otherwise, according to a recent survey conducted by local
universities, most eligible voters across Thailand are likely to
exercise their right by a kind of "absent participation" in the
April 2 general election.
The survey found that 45.4 percent of voters interviewed in
Bangkok and 11 other provinces in all parts of Thailand said they
would cast their ballots on the Sunday's election, but would
abstain from voting for any candidate or party.
Only 20 percent of the respondents revealed they would still
vote for the TRT Party of Thaksin. But Thaksin has reiterated that
he would not return to his post if his party candidates received
less than half of the votes cast in the general election.
Meanwhile, deep-seated problems are emerging since late last
year when the anti-Thaksin movement began to stage, such as the
rifts between the advantaged urban classes and the rural poor,
between political groups that once could have compromised and even
among family members.
Some local analysts said that the splits among the ideologies of
Thais are more important than the political itself. They will
damage the nation's holistic power at every aspect including
economy, culture and comity.
Last week, Thaksin offered to form a government of national
unity that will include all his opponents. This seemed a unity
solution for the crisis. But it was suddenly rejected by the
opposition parties and the anti-Thaksin groups.
As many efforts of Thaksin have failed working before his
opponents, Thai political crisis shows more blur factors. Anyway,
Sunday's snap election will go along, no matter to which direction
the political tide will be led.
(Xinhua News Agency April 3, 2006)
