The United Nations
Development Program (UNDP) announced the release of its Economic
and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2006 in Beijing on
Thursday at an event entitled, "Inspiring the International Economy
Energy".
According to the survey, global economic growth in 2005 was
driven essentially by the strong economic performance of China and
the US. But there was a slowdown recorded in growth; 3.2 percent as
compared with the record growth rate of 4 percent in 2004.
The growth rate of developing countries in Asia and the Pacific
also decelerated moderately from 7.4 percent in 2004 to 6.6 percent
in 2005. The slowdown in the global economy and in the developing
countries of Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific (ESCAP) was the result primarily of high and volatile oil
prices and a softening of global trade. More expensive oil also
heightened inflation in the region. However, overall price
pressures remained mild by historical standards.
Prospects for 2006 indicate that gross domestic product (GDP)
growth should maintain its current momentum as price pressures
abate slightly. This is based on the following assumptions: that
oil prices do not increase significantly; that large global current
account imbalances do not unwind precipitously; and that a
judicious mixture of monetary and fiscal policies preserves the
growth momentum while keeping inflation in check.
In relation to China, its GDP growth is expected to slow down
marginally from 9.6 percent in 2005 to around 8 percent this
year.
The region also faces the threat that avian influenza might
develop into a pandemic, the report warned. As a conservative
estimate, the global loss in GDP from a pandemic could amount to
US$200 billion in just one quarter and in a worst-case scenario
could plunge the global economy into recession. So there is an
urgent need for collective preparedness in the region involving the
stockpiling of medical supplies and taking joint action on possible
control measures, such as travel restrictions, to minimize the
spread of the disease.
Longer-term issues as highlighted in the report relate to the
ongoing challenge of alleviating poverty and reducing inequalities,
utilizing the benefits of home remittances to simultaneously
improve social indicators and macroeconomic fundamentals, and
reenergizing the trade liberalization agenda agreed at the Sixth
WTO Ministerial Conference held in Hong Kong in December 2005.
Moreover, the region needs to address the problems of
unemployment and underemployment. The incidence of unemployment
appears to have increased despite rapid growth in recent years
while underemployment remains more serious than unemployment,
especially in rural areas. Even within the ranks of the employed,
the vast majority of workers earns a paltry wage and therefore
remains vulnerable to internal and external shocks.
A disturbing aspect of the problem is the phenomenon of youth
unemployment, which appears to be on the rise. Governments
therefore need to take a number of initiatives to improve the
functioning of labor markets, specifically to enhance youth
employment, and improve the productivity and earnings of all
workers.
For their part, employers need to display better corporate
responsibility by providing training opportunities for workers to
enable them to enhance their skill levels in today's rapidly
changing global economy.
This 2006 edition of the annual report was prepared and
completed in Bangkok by ESCAP by 62 commissioners. It has been
released globally in New York, Geneva, and 13 other cities in the
Asia-Pacific region, including Beijing, Colombo, Dacca, Islamabad,
Jakarta, Katmandu, Kuala Lumpur, New Delhi, Manila, Moscow, Seoul,
Tokyo and Hanoi.
(China.org.cn by Xu Lin, March 31, 2006)