Small jets flying regional routes are expected to account for a
third of China's total aviation fleet in 20 years to meet surging
demand, according to a research center announcement yesterday.
By 2025, civil air operators are projected to have added 800
regional jets, half of them capable of seating 60 to 100
passengers, the Aviation Industry Development Research Center of
China said in its annual market forecast.
As the country's economy continues to thrive, the frequency
local air travel will increase, driving the need for more aircraft,
Wang Boxue, a senior researcher with the center, said.
Air travel increased by 35.2 percent year on year to reach 23
billion ton-kilometers in 2004, the third largest volume in the
world. In the next two decades, the yearly growth rate is forecast
to run at 8.4 percent, according to Wang.
To match this trend and support the national strategy of
developing the western regions and revitalizing northeast China,
the country will have to build a series of small and medium-sized
airports, he said.
Most flights connect cities in the affluent east. The less
developed west, particularly southwest China, where development and
tourist opportunities are abundant, will become the fastest-growing
air market in the future, Wang said.
In five years, the number of airports on the Chinese mainland
will rise from 137 to 200, and further increase to 250 by 2020,
according to the center's projections.
Turbo-fan regional jets have an advantage of operating in the
point-to-point market that will be created by the new airports,
Wang said. Since new air routes do not usually have stable
passenger bases, using larger jets would undoubtedly lead to lower
flight frequency and passenger take-up rates.
Turbo-fan regional aircraft allow air carriers to achieve an
acceptable take-up rate and reduce operational risks, Wang
said.
Smaller aircraft will also be increasingly used to replace
larger jets operated by major airlines on less popular routes, as
air companies are desperate to improve business performance.
Only 26 percent of China's air routes averaged two or more
flights each day in 2004, and 59 percent had an average of less
than one flight a day, according to statistics from the General
Administration of Civil Aviation of China.
Despite the low flight frequency and passenger flow, planes with
at least 100 seats were used on 71 percent of these routes.
Passengers will prefer turbo-fan regional jets with 60 to 100
seats to 50-seater aircrafts, he said.
As in other developed air markets, regional jets will play an
important role in extending the geographic reach of major airline
hubs and augmenting larger airplane operations during off-peak
hours, Wang added.
Regional aviation last year accounted for 9.8 percent of the
country's total passenger flow, according to Wang.
(China Daily September 27, 2005)