Despite seemingly bland ballot language, Taiwan leader Chen
Shui-bian's referendum plan threatens to trigger heightened tension
and even a crisis in cross-Straits relations, mainland analysts
say.
Wu Nengyuan, director of the Institute of Modern Taiwan Studies
under the Fujian Academy of Social Sciences, described the
so-called "defensive referendum" as a virtual vote on reunification
vs. independence with a sinister motive.
"Contrasting with Chen's creeping pro-independence moves in the
past, the proposed referendum aimed at clearing the way for his
splittist scheme will prove to be more risky and provocative," he
told China Daily Sunday.
On Friday Chen announced the two-part content of the March 20
ballot, which coincides with "presidential" elections.
Voters will be asked whether the island should beef up its
anti-missile defenses if the mainland refuses to withdraw missiles
and renounce the threat of war against Taiwan.
The referendum also includes an option for Taiwan to open talks
with the mainland.
"More radical separatist steps may ensue from the vote to drag
cross-Straits situation into an uncontrolled state," Wu said.
A planned island-wide election itself is meant to fan
anti-mainland sentiment among the Taiwanese public and challenge
the bottom line of the Chinese mainland, he added.
"It can only propel the mainland to get fully prepared to crush
any separatist activities of the island."
On Saturday, the planned referendum drew firm opposition from
Beijing, which condemned it as "one-sided provocation" to peace and
stability in bilateral ties.
Chen is "stubbornly promoting the so-called referendum which
provokes confrontation between the people across the Straits and
will also sabotage cross-Straits relations," the Taiwan Affairs
Office of the State Council said in a written statement on
Saturday.
It added the referendum "is a one-sided provocation to the
stability and peace of the Taiwan Straits and a bid to prepare for
Taiwan independence."
Foreign Ministry Spokesman Kong Quan also said on Saturday that
Chen's move, under the guise of promoting peace and democracy, has
gone against the immediate interests of Taiwanese people and
ignored objections from the international community.
He urged the United States to remain steadfast on its explicit
opposition to Taipei's pro-independence moves.
On the island, the opposition parties still consider the
proposed plebiscite unnecessary and illegal.
(China Daily January 19, 2004)