Dr. Li Peilin, deputy director of the Sociology Study Institute
of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicts a faster
economic growth and deepened reforms for China next year.
According to Dr. Li's analysis, China's social development will
feature five basic characteristics in 2004. First, as a new round
of fast economic growth is likely to take place, cities and towns
are on the threshold of the third-phrase of the development boom,
boosted by house, auto, communication and education consumptions;
second, a more mature outlook of balanced development is taking
shape as the existing development mode dominated by simple economic
growth comes to an end; third, reform will meet hard times because
every action to deepen reform is closely related to adjustments of
interest distribution and thus the issue of how to distribute
benefits that reform has turned out will gradually find its way
onto the official agenda; fourth, the expansion of China's
opening-up and the timetable of its WTO commitments, which
themselves are outcomes of reform, will in turn push forward
in-depth reforms in politics, economy and society; and fifth,
conflicts among various social concepts will yield new
interest-related disagreements on a number of key issues of social
development.
Here follows a forecast of China's social development in 2004
with an analysis on some social problems that might occur:
I.?The new strategy of balanced
development will be implemented and exert an all-round influence on
allocations of economic, political and social resources. What needs
noticing is that China's economic development has now been on the
track guided and adjusted by market.
II.?Economic growth will see a new round
of upsurges that might break the 7-8 percent annual increase rates
of recent years. The consumption market will hopefully bid goodbye
to its doldrums and the deflation of recent years. Overheated
developments could happen in a few sectors, which will result in
shortage of raw materials, energy and capital. The government will
adopt some new measures to prevent the national economy from
overheating and offset overproduction and new economic
imbalances.
III.?The regional disparity in development
between south and north China will, like the case between east and
west China, further widen, as bigger influxes of investment flood
the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.
IV.?The imbalance between economic growth
and social development will be exacerbated. How to reconcile the
sluggish stock market, unemployment and low income with economic
growth will prove a hard nut to crack.
V.?Despite many doubts and puzzlements,
China's recently unveiled strategy to revitalize its northeast
areas will become a new development focus on a par with the
accelerated development in southeast China and the West China
Development Drive.
VI.?College graduates will face a tougher
job market and their salary expectancy for first jobs will continue
to fall, which will force colleges to reform their curriculums and
specialties offered.
VII.?As industrialization and urbanization
pick up and land prices expected to keep rising, a new round of
"enclosure movement" will be solicited. As a result, conflicts
triggered by land disputes and residential relocations will
escalate.
VIII.?The worsening shortage of urban
water resources will snowball into one of the major factors
hindering urban development. The spread of AIDS, tuberculosis and
hepatitis B, together with the pollution of surface drinking water
in rural areas, poses a formidable threat to public health.
IX.?As China's opening-up expands and its
modernization makes headway, human capital fostering has become an
ever-important mission for the country. Mediocre human resources
seem to be limitless while high-caliber talent has always been in
short supply. Manpower education and training practitioners are
faced with new requests and talent fostering and capability
building have emerged as a major social concern.
X.?The lately hike of grain prices is a
natural result of the decline of comparative market profit of
agricultural production. Relying mainly on domestic production and
with appropriate imports, China won't see food security turn into a
serious problem hampering its overall economic and social
development.
(China.org.cn by Chen Chao and Daragh Moller, December 25,
2003)