China will maintain a
high economic growth rate over the next 15 to 20 years, according
to economists attending the 2003
China Economic Growth Forum in Suzhou in east China's Jiangsu
Province, which opened on Sunday.
Nobel laureate Lawrence
Klein said China had recorded rapid growth over the past two
decades, and its economy would continue to grow strongly in the
next 20 years though there might be some slowing of the pace. He
said a 6 to 7 percent rate is more likely than the 8 or 9 percent
recorded in some years.
Goldman Sachs (Asia)
Managing Director Fred Hu also expressed optimism about the
nation's prospects because of positive fundamentals in place for
long-term rapid growth. China has great "catch-up'' potential since
its per-capita gross domestic product is still low compared to
developed nations, he said.
Hu said the Chinese
economy is backed up by the high proportion of savings deposits and
mainly driven by long-term investments, such as those in
infrastructure, equipment retooling and innovation and housing
consumption.
Hu noted that human
resources in China are immense and cheap, while the government has
accumulated rich experience in economic management and adopted a
sound policy environment for economic growth.
Entry into the World
Trade Organization (WTO) and China's opening-up will help the
country optimize distribution of resources and further improve its
productivity. Hu predicted the improvement of productivity would
replace capital accumulation as the major driving force if China's
growth in the next two decades.
Li Deshui, director of
, said China will be able to maintain a growth
rate of 7 to 8 percent for an unprecedented period of more than 40
years.
China has developed a
relatively strong base of materials, enjoyed a great potential for
growth and followed a practical strategy of development, he said.
The government has accumulated plentiful experience in
macro-economic controls and explored a unique route of development
with Chinese characteristics.
Acknowledging that China
was accelerating the pace of opening itself to the outside world
and implementing the strategy of developing education and science,
Li said the country has a sound development environment as it
adopts a new social and economic ideologies.
Klein said China had
already realized the importance of coordinating and balancing
quality with the quantity of economic growth. This will have great
impacts on the economic growth, he added.
The two-day forum is
sponsored by the NBS and attended by more than 300 officials,
academics and business people from both China and
abroad.
(China Daily November
10, 2003)