The Ministry of Labor and Social Security recently released a
report on the post-SARS employment situation. According to the
report by a special research team under the ministry, gross
employment, employment structure, job seekers and employment
services have all been affected by the SARS crisis. Summing up the
general situation, the SARS crisis has had a great impact on
employment rather than just the economy by whittling away existing
job posts over the short-term and affecting the existence and
increase of labor opportunities in the long-term.
The report agrees that SARS exerted more negative influences on
employment than just generally affecting the economy. Objectively,
economic development from January to April was riding high in a
relatively stable macroeconomic environment. The hardest hit
sectors account for a relatively small share in the national GDP
structure. Fortunately the mass production system and technology
structure were not grossly affected by the disease.
Those hardest-hit sectors, though accounting for a small part of
GDP, were the labor-intensive mass working population areas. In the
short-term, these enterprises laid off employees as a measure to
rise to the SARS challenge financially owing to a sharp decline or
suspension in business and revenue. In the SARS period that peaked
from May to June, part-time workers were the largest victim group.
But researchers predict full-time employees may not escape the same
fate if SARS were to go any further. In the long-term, even if SARS
could be contained, its impact on the labor market will continue
for some time. Therefore, research holds that SARS will have a
longer impact on existing work posts.
Team researchers think that the service sector has had the biggest
cut in working posts but the pain for the manufacturing sector may
yet come later.
According to statistics from the National Tourism Administration,
over 6 million people directly work for the tourism industry. Among
them, part-time workers are the most vulnerable to be laid off.
According to the multiplier effect in tourism employment,
employment in related industries will definitely be affected.
The epidemic also brings much challenge to employment in urban
services, business and trade, catering, passenger and freight
transport sectors. In hard hit regions, the social service sectors
were on "shutout" or semi-"shutout". Trade employees had vacations
or trickled back to their hometowns. The aviation and railway
industries cut flights and trains since demand for moving dropped
precipitously. In the business and trade sector, some major
retailing outlets began to lay off part-time workers while some
privately owned family stores sank directly in the SARS storm. A
big number of migrant workers in small and medium restaurants and
entertainment venues were laid off too while business soured for
the catering sector or were ordered to suspend from entertaining,
forcing immediate closure and loss of revenue. A big loss of
working posts in these industries constitutes a direct negative
index to existing employment opportunities.
Experts think though that manufacturing has had no obvious impact
so far, the suspension of foreign trade and economic cooperation
may slow down the growth of manufacturing that turns out to delay
employment growth. Anti-SARS precautionary measures will definitely
boost costs of manufacturing enterprises and squeeze their profit
margins and investment capabilities. Senior commercial and economic
exchanges were delayed or canceled in fear of SARS. Undergoing
foreign-funded project progress was delayed. Negotiation and
program assessment were suspended for utilizing international
finance and foreign government loans. Outsourcing engineering
projects and labor cooperation have been straitjacketed. According
to the Ministry of Commerce, the contract value of foreign capital
and its growth in April declined by 33 percent and 37 percent than
in the first quarter respectively. Late April sees 5 percent less
new foreign-funded enterprises setup than usual.
The report holds that migrant workers were the hardest hit
employment group, followed by the laid-off and unemployed workers
through their difficulties in reemployment and having less income
and increased urban poverty. College graduates may have notably
tough employment prospects also.
According to estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture, 8 million
peasant workers of the over 100 million working in urban and
prosperous areas have trickled back to rural areas, accounting for
8 percent of the rural migrant working population. Experts predict
that more will return or stay unemployed in cities if the disease
remains in the cities.
Moreover, there are 15 million laid-off workers reemployed in
flexible working methods. The big impact to the service and
catering sector may lower their incomes or even jolt them out of
employment again.
Colleges are rolling out 2.12 million graduates, a number that has
exploded, thanks to the nation's campaign to expand college
enrollment four years ago, in 2003. These avid job hunters have the
same gloomy prospects in the job market. Since late April, almost
all recruitment activities were delayed or cancelled. As a result,
consultation, interviews and recruitment for college graduates were
suspended. Enterprises have stopped their plan to recruit new blood
from campuses. Some college graduates who planned to study abroad
may swell the labor market if they do not get a visa. It is
estimated that the employment rate among 2003 college graduates
will be lower than 65 percent of 2002 at the time they leave
campus. Some may need a longer time than last year to find their
first full-time job.
(Chinar.org.cn by Alex Xu June 19, 2003)