Demand for electricity is expected to rise by 9 to 10 percent this
year with power shortages emerging in China's economically booming
southern and eastern areas, an industry association said.
Periodic blackouts are set to continue in the coming months in
south China's Guangdong Province, east China's Anhui, Jiangsu and
Zhejiang provinces and Shanghai, southwest China's Sichuan Province
and Chongqing Municipality and Northwest China's Gansu, Qinghai and
Shaanxi provinces and the Ninxia Hui Autonomous Region, and north
China's Hebei and Shanxi provinces, according to a report from the
China Power Enterprise Association.
The strained power supply in these areas since the end of the last
year is mainly due to insufficient construction of power generators
in past years, it said.
Robust industrial production, falling water supplies for
hydroelectric generators and disruptions of coal supplies will also
take their toll, it said.
The report said electricity demand in China is expected to exceed
1.8 trillion kilowatt-hours this year, 149 billion kilowatt-hours
more than last year.
"Healthy economic development will boost electricity demand," the
report said.
In
the first two months of this year, electricity consumption jumped
by a historic high of 17.6 percent to 264.8 billion kilowatt-hours
as high power-consuming industries -- including metallurgy,
transport and textiles -- continued their strong performance.
Almost half of the country's provinces and regions have experienced
blackouts since the beginning of the year, according to the State
Power Regulatory Commission, the industry watchdog.
Local power companies have to cut off power to residential users at
peak hours to guarantee a sufficient supply for industrial
production.
Association officials said electricity growth is set to slow down
in the next few months and peak this summer when people start to
use air-conditioners.
The officials said electricity supply in the named areas will
inevitably fall short this summer and in the next two or three
years.
A
supply gap of 10 million kilowatts of generating capacity is
expected this summer, the association's report said.
Officials from the commission, however, stressed that the situation
could be handled by reinforcing electricity distribution between
power-rich and power-hungry areas.
"There is still room for maneuver," said Shi Yubo, the commission's
vice-chairman.
The commission will discourage users from using so much electricity
at peak times by increasing the cost during the busiest hours and
cutting the overnight price, Shi said.
However, analysts said that, despite the electricity oversupply in
areas such as northeast China, electricity transmission between
different regional grids will be limited because the trans-regional
grid is too fragile to cope with the distribution of large amounts
of electricity.
In
2001, the cross-regional electricity transmission only accounted
for 1.6 percent of the Chinese mainland's total electricity
distribution.
The power-shortage problem fundamentally lies on the supply side.
The report said the growth in demand has been underestimated in
previous years, resulting in the construction of new generators
falling behind demand since 2000.
Last year, the generating capacity increased by 4.3 percent, 7.2
percentage points lower than the growth in demand, according to the
association's report.
It
is estimated that China will be short of 15 million kilowatts of
generating capacity in 2004.
Coal companies have also increased coal prices, forcing some
generators to stop operating.
(China Daily April 16, 2003)