Electricity power cuts have mainly struck east, central and western
China, as strong economic growth and rising consumption for heating
to combat this year's severe winter has led to a surge in demand.
The pressure on coal supplies and drop in electricity generated by
hydropower plants suffering low water levels, have caused rolling
blackouts in some regions.
Analysts said the shortfall in supply is expected to be alleviated
in coming months, but then to intensify again in summer when
consumption once again peaks because of air conditioning use and
industrial production.
However, the lives of local residents during the week-long Spring
Festival period are not expected to be affected partly thanks to
limited industrial uses.
More than 10 provincial regions have lost power sporadically since
late December, including Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hebei, Henan,
Shaanxi, Shanxi and Gansu provinces, Shanghai and the Ningxia Hui
Autonomous Region.
Local power companies have to cut off power to residents during
peak hours, to guarantee enough supply for industrial
production.
In
southwest China's Chongqing Municipality, daily electricity
consumption has reached a record high this month. "We have already
shifted the off-days of big industrial users from Saturday and
Sunday to Monday and Tuesday or Wednesday and Thursday, to avoid
too much electricity demand on workdays,'' said Liao Zhenghe,
director of the electricity distribution center of the city.
In
Sichuan Province, the electricity delivery has to be stalled for
more than 880 times a day in January as the supply exhausts.
Analysts said the power cuts were mainly caused by the brisk
economic growth, especially the rapid industrial growth which
accounts for almost 80 percent of the total consumption.
Industrial output growth has increased by 14.9 percent in December,
the fastest growing month last year. That growth is expected to be
maintained at a rate of 14.5 percent this month.
The situation was exacerbated by this year's long, hard winter
which sent electricity consumption for heating soaring compared to
previous years.
On
the supply side, a falling water level has reduced the hydropower
supplies, causing major problems for those grids such as that in
Sichuan Province, with a heavy reliance on hydropower. The water
level in key reservoirs has fallen by a quarter since October
compared with a year ago, statistics show.
"About 10 percent of the demand can not be satisfied in Sichuan
during the low water season from December to April,'' said Xu
Yuanjue, spokesperson for Xichang Power Co.
Demands on coal supplies and lower output levels also contribute to
the power shortage, analysts said.
More significantly, said Wu Jingru, an electricity expert with the
State Development Bank, an underestimate of electricity demand made
several years ago resulted in too few power generators being
constructed in recent years.
China will have an annual generating capacity shortfall of 20
million kilowatts in the next two years, Wu warned.
Although the shortage has caused disruption to electricity
supplies, government officials do not see it as a looming
crisis.
"The shortage is severe in some places, but it is neither a
nationwide breakdown, nor ever lasting,'' said Shi Yubo,
vice-chairman of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, the
industry watchdog, at a national conference.
"A
general prediction for this year is that demand and supply will be
balanced, but with some areas sometimes experiencing
difficulties,'' Shi added.
Still, uncertainties are daunting, including possible coal price
hikes, and risks of the on-going sweeping reforms in the power
industry, analysts said.
(China Daily January 31, 2003)