In a high-stakes battle for FIFA World Cup qualification, China takes on Saudi Arabia in a crucial AFC third-round Group C matchup on Thursday.

Japan leads the group with 16 points and is nearly assured of direct qualification for the 2026 World Cup. However, the rest of the group remains tightly contested, with Australia sitting second with seven points, while China, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Indonesia are all level on six. The top two teams will qualify automatically, while the third- and fourth-placed teams will advance to a playoff.

China's Zhang Yuning (center) vies for the ball with Japan's Ayumu Seko during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Asian Qualifier match between China and Japan in Xiamen, Southeast China's Fujian province, Nov 19, 2024. (PHOTO / XINHUA) 

For China, which currently sits bottom due to an inferior goal difference, every match in the final four rounds is effectively a must-win. A positive result in Riyadh would be crucial in keeping pace with the competition.

The last time the two teams met last September, China squandered a lead at home despite holding a numerical advantage, conceding twice from set pieces to suffer a heartbreaking defeat.

Since then, Saudi Arabia has undergone significant changes. Following a disappointing start to the third round, head coach Roberto Mancini was replaced last October by Herve Renard, who had previously led the team to a famous victory over Argentina at the 2022 World Cup. However, Renard's return has not yet produced a turnaround. Saudi Arabia has struggled at home, winless in three matches.

Under pressure, Renard has opted for a squad overhaul, with 13 of the 26 players who participated in December's Gulf Cup left out, while six newcomers have been brought into the squad. The instability stems largely from the Saudi Pro League's influx of high-profile overseas players, which has reduced playing time for domestic talent. The squad now features younger players who have seen more league action.

Additionally, limited preparation time -- just four training sessions before the match -- complicates Saudi Arabia's tactical approach. Midfield mainstay Mohamed Kanno is also sidelined due to injury.

China, meanwhile, has gained momentum after losing its first three matches of the third round. Consecutive wins over Indonesia and Bahrain have lifted the squad, with head coach Branko Ivankovic refining his tactics and building team chemistry.

The squad has been training in Dubai for two weeks to acclimatize to West Asian conditions. In a recent warm-up match, China defeated Kuwait 3-1, a team with a playing style similar to Saudi Arabia. Ivankovic praised the team's progress, calling preparations "very productive."

One of the biggest additions to the squad is Brazilian-born midfielder Serginho, who recently completed his naturalization process. His inclusion could provide China with a much-needed creative presence in midfield. Two promising U-20 players, Wang Yudong and Liu Chengyu, have also been called up as part of a broader youth movement.

Ivankovic and Renard are familiar foes, having faced each other multiple times in international competitions. China is expected to stick to its compact 4-4-2 formation with a counterattacking focus, while Saudi Arabia prefers a more aggressive 4-3-3 system that relies on wing play.

Set pieces could be decisive. Saudi Arabia has historically excelled in dead-ball situations, while China has struggled to defend them. In response, China has emphasized set-piece defense in training, with captain Wang Dalei stressing the importance of organization and discipline.

From a mental standpoint, the pressure will be greater on Saudi Arabia, which desperately needs a win. China can afford a draw but will seek to capitalize on counterattacks if the home side pushes forward too aggressively.

Despite China's recent improvements, Saudi Arabia holds a significant edge in their head-to-head record. China has never won an away match against the Green Falcons, managing just two draws in five previous visits. FIFA's latest rankings reflect this disparity, with Saudi Arabia at No. 59 and China at No. 90.

With so much on the line in a tightly packed group, the match could be decided by which team better adapts to the evolving circumstances on the field. China's ability to withstand early pressure and execute its tactical game plan will be critical in determining the outcome.