This photo taken on July 25, 2023 shows a view of Madrid, Spain. [Photo/Xinhua]

Spain's foreign minister has openly stated that Europe should reduce its dependence on the United States and engage more with China – surely saying aloud what many European policymakers are thinking.

Europe must make its own decisions independently while taking advantage of partnership opportunities with China when beneficial, José Manuel Albares recently told the Financial Times.

What's changed isn't Spain's stance – Madrid has consistently engaged with Beijing despite broader China-EU tensions. Instead, what's changed is the readiness of other European capitals to listen now that U.S. unpredictability is forcing a recalculation of priorities.

Since 2019, the European Union has largely followed America's lead vis-a-vis China, labeling it a "systemic rival" and launching what it calls a "de-risking" strategy – which Beijing views as thinly veiled protectionism aimed at containing China's economic development. Brussels further strained relations last October by imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, a move China denounced as discriminatory and harmful to both sides' interests.

Spain, however, defied the trend by expanding trade ties with China. During his visit to China last year, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez outlined his strategic view on China-EU ties, noting that while differences exist in certain areas, "points in common are more important."

This pragmatic approach has paid dividends: Chinese investment in Spain has increased consistently since 2018, bucking the broader trend of declining Chinese FDI projects throughout the rest of Europe. High-profile deals, such as a $1 billion investment from Chinese green energy giant Envision in a new hydrogen production plant, helped Spain become the eurozone's fastest-growing economy in 2024.

Spain's strategy has also locked down crucial investments for its automotive sector and established China as a key agricultural export market. In 2024, China imported more pork from Spain than any other country.

Meanwhile, Chinese tourists – Spain's highest-spending visitors – increased by almost 70% year on year in 2024, driving the country's tourism recovery and giving Madrid's luxury retailers plenty to smile about. 

For Spain, the relationship goes beyond trade. Albares highlighted China's key role in tackling major challenges like climate change, stating that engagement was crucial. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi aligned with this thinking at the Munich Security Conference, highlighting common ground on global governance issues.

Wang said the two countries should work together to nurture new growth areas for cooperation in the digital economy, artificial intelligence and other fields.

For the rest of Europe, what once looked like Spanish defiance now appears increasingly like foresight. As U.S. policy becomes increasingly volatile, transatlantic relations are feeling the strain. This was starkly evident in Trump's suggestion that he would use military force against Denmark to gain control of Greenland. And then there was Vice President JD Vance's Munich scolding, described by European officials as "unacceptable."

So, is Brussels about to follow Madrid's lead in asserting European autonomy?

Senior EU officials certainly appear to be softening their stance on China. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who championed the confrontational "de-risking" strategy, recently advocated for "agreements that could even expand our trade and investment ties" with China. 

The United Kingdom has made similar moves, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves renewing engagement with China and securing 69 mutually beneficial outcomes during her Beijing visit in January.

Chinese officials have welcomed these overtures. Foreign Minister Wang told European leaders at Munich, "China has always seen in Europe an important pole in the multipolar world," a sharp contrast from Vance.

Of course, this could all go sideways. It's entirely possible that Europe, however reluctantly, aligns with the U.S. president on a hawkish China policy simply to appease him. The EU and the United States maintain the world's largest bilateral trade and investment partnership, which grants the U.S. substantial economic leverage.

It's also worth recalling that Trump's last administration successfully corralled the EU into adopting a more hawkish stance toward Beijing – Spain being a notable exception – resulting in costly policy U-turns. Ripping out Huawei's 5G equipment at Washington's behest cost at least $62 billion by some estimates.

The question now is whether Trump can strong-arm Europe's China policy again if he takes a hardline stance. We may soon find out the answer. Trump officials are already pushing the Europeans to tighten controls on China's chip industry, according to Bloomberg. 

Given these challenges, the extent to which Europe can truly assert its independence is still uncertain. However, Spain's example clearly demonstrates that a genuinely independent foreign policy is achievable and beneficial.

Jay Ian Birbeck is a freelance writer based in Guangzhou. He received an MSc in Digital Humanities from UCL. 

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