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China's renaissance requires new family planning

By Mu Guangzong
0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China.org.cn, November 18, 2014
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From the point of view of demography, care for the elderly is a problem that the working population cannot resolve for the non-working aging population - the latter share the social wealth created by the former. And the disabled aging population needs even more care. This kind of supply and demand has to reach a balance so that the stability of the aging society can be maintained. The best population structure would be for the working population to surpass the demand from the aging population, forming a safe population structure with stock of manpower. However, China is facing the dilemma that the demands of the aging population are greater that what the younger generation is able to supply, and that the decrease of birth rate is worsening the situation.

Fourth, the low birth rate for many years has created a population loss, or a "sharp decrease in the young population", "decreasing female population" and "break in the population relationship." The real population crisis for China is the structural population loss in multiple angles, population imbalance and population implosion. The total number of population is just the surface of the problem.

The drop in the birth rate after 15 years will reduce the young working population and cause enduring population loss. In the coming 10 years, the population aged between 20 and 40 will fall by more than 100 million. As time goes by, there will be a natural reduction of young workers with the best creativity and productivity.

And fifth, the shrinkage in manpower will threaten national defense capacity and national security.

The population problem has an obvious lag effect. It is usually too late when we come to realize the severity of the problem. Russia suffered a national population crisis very early. Its population decreased from 149 million in 1992 to 143 million in 2012. The shortage of manpower brought about by the high mortality rate and the low birth rate has greatly restrained Russia's economic development. The concern and appeal from all walks of life on the population problem finally exerted an influence on government policy. Vladimir Putin thought that Russia should at least encourage people to have a second child. Thus, a 10-year policy was implemented on Jan. 1, 2007 with a government-allocated annual fund of 30-40 rubles.

Russia is not alone. Japan also has a shrinking younger population and an aging population. Currently, Japan has a population of 127.47 million. It is predicted that it will decrease to 86.74 million in 2060. The decrease in the labor force has been the major reason for the sluggish economy for more than 20 years. On June 25, 2013, the Japanese government passed a white paper on taking measures to encourage people to get married and have children. In South Korea, the "core labor force population" aged between 25-49 was 40.7 percent of the total in 2010, showing a decrease for the first time. A low birth rate has been a problem for South Korea for many years. It has become the top concern that is related to the country's lasting political stability.

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