China's policy is based on a set of preferences. It wants to retain its original claim while being open to talks on the issue with rival countries. Energy seems to be key factor in its policy formulation. Being one of the fastest growing countries, it does not want to let go a golden opportunity of having huge oil and gas reserves on its doorstep by showing weakness on the sovereignty over the South China Sea. It is the only country with advance offshore drilling capability and could exploit the deep soil reserves for greater economic benefits. The control of the sea will help to save both efforts and money needed to haul oil supplies from the Middle East. The current sources and routes of oil transport are under American influence and Chinese security could be in jeopardy during any conflict in the volatile Middle East.

As part of the policy to resolve the issue through peaceful means, China signed the Declaration of Conduct (DOC) with ASEAN members in 2002 to address problems related to the South China Sea. But due to the weak implementation mechanism, the DOC has failed to resolve the contentious issue. In another effort, it signed the Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking (JMSU) in 2005 with the Philippines and Vietnam to transform the conflict into a cooperative undertaking but it did not work well, as apart from China, none of the signatories had advanced technological knowhow to benefit from the project. But it shows that China is ready for any settlement which drives away external interference and promises regional cooperation for mutual benefits.

Premier Li, during a meeting in Brunei, also expressed the desire for settling regional disputes through bilateral means. A joint statement issued after Li's meeting with ASEAN leaders promised that all sides would "work towards the conclusion of a Code of Conduct… based on consensus." In his address the Chinese leader also criticized the U.S. without naming it. "Countries that are not parties to the disputes should not get involved. Freedom of navigation in the South China Sea has never been an issue and will never be one," said Li in response to Kerry's speech.

It is evident that the U.S. is encouraging the Philippines to take China to UN on the issue to internationalize the problem and create space for intervention. With the support of strong regional countries like Japan and South Korea, Washington can complicate the issue. China should play cool, avoid confrontation and follow its policy of a peaceful rise without getting dragged into regional tensions.

The writer is a senior Pakistani journalist and columnist.

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