August 15, the anniversary of the day after Emperor Hirohito
accepted terms of surrender in the Postdam Declaration in 1945, is
approaching.
Now the question arises: Will Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi pay visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan's war
dead, including 14 Class A war criminals, on August 15 this year,
the 61st anniversary of the end of World War II in
Asia-Pacific?
There has been widespread speculation as to what will happen,
but people generally agree that there are three possibilities.
First, Koizumi might refrain from visiting the war shrine,
trying not to cause trouble for his political heir, since it is now
apparent that the Japanese citizens opposed to the prime minister's
shrine visit outnumber those in favor of the visit.
Second, the prime minister might perform the visit perfunctorily
in a largely ceremonial way, as he did last year, when Koizumi, in
common suit, paid a visit but stopped short of entering deep into
the shrine compound. This is merely to show that he fulfilled his
promise of shrine visit.
Third, Koizumi, staking all his political assets, might go all
out for a full-fledged visit, making good on his pledge to visit
Yasukuni on August 15, which is likely to be his last visit as
prime minister. It should be kept in mind that Koizumi steered
clear of August 15, a sensitive date, in all of his previous
Yasukuni visits.
In case Koizumi's August 15 shrine visit indeed becomes reality,
there would be a large following, including parliament members and
some members of the general public. In this way, Koizumi actually
stages a showdown with the Japanese who are opposed to the visit
and with the countries in Japan's neighborhood, which were victims
of Japanese aggression or colonial rule.
In this scenario, Koizumi could stoke extra-nationalist feelings
among the Japanese public and challenge China and the Republic of
Korea.
For a long time, Koizumi has twisted the issue of his war shrine
visits into a matter of whether Japan should bend to the "pressure
from China." It, therefore, follows that those Japanese who
disagree with the prime minister's war shrine visit favor
submission to China. A climate is thus created in which those who
are opposed to the shrine visits are traitors.
The last choice is doubtlessly the worst one. Three factors
probably drive Koizumi along this road.
First, the Japanese economy is in good form current and
Koizumi's approval rating remains high.
The economy is a vitally important factor that determines the
approval ratings of Japanese leaders. But the good economic
situation is not so much attributed to Koizumi's economic policy as
to a stroke of his good luck.
The No 1 stimulus for Japan's economic recovery comes from the
enormous demand from China. Moreover, the US economy, the world's
economic locomotive, is also doing well.
But all in all, it was during Koizumi's tenure that the Japanese
economy started making a turn for the better. This, coupled by
Koizumi's publicity efforts, easily leads the Japanese public to
believe that the incumbent prime minister is worth supporting.
Second, the influence of the overwhelming victory scored by the
ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the general election last
September lingers on. If that marked the victory at the showdown
with the domestic opposition, now it is time to stage a diplomatic
coup. The premiership of Koizumi would be thus rounded off by
victories in both domestic and international arenas.
Third, the nice treat Koizumi enjoyed during his US visit and
the praises US President George W. Bush lavished on him are enough
to make him feel buoyant.
In spite of the fact that US public opinion resents the
attitudes of some Japanese politicians towards the trials at the
International Military Tribunal for the Far East and is critical of
Koizumi's war shrine visits, George W. Bush, a realist, however,
will not put the matters of historical and moral right and wrong
before the United States' interests.
However, the Yasukuni Shrine issue goes beyond the scope of
China-Japan relations. Japanese leaders' war shrine visits not only
sting the feelings of the Chinese but also aim to reverse the
historical verdict on the war launched by Japanese militarists. The
United States, which played a primary role in the trials of the Far
East tribunal, actually bears the brunt of such verdict-reversing
attempts.
Conservative Japanese politicians over the last decades have
basically acknowledged that the war against China was aggression
and that Japan imposed colonial rule on Korea. But what they are
most reluctant to acknowledge is the fatally erroneous decision to
provoke the war with the United States. The exhibits in the
Yasukuni Shrine, for example, have connotations obviously targeting
the United States. So, we can safely draw the conclusion that
conservative Japanese politicians largely have the United States in
mind when interpreting the history of World War II.
Koizumi is merely a political gambler, not a politician with
strategic insight and perspective.
Koizumi pales beside a number of Japan's post-war prime
ministers: Yusuhiro Nakasone, as prime minister from 1982-87, stood
out with his strategic perspective involving Japan-China relations;
Kakuei Tanaka came to Beijing in 1972 to establish formal
diplomatic relations with China; Tanzan Ishibashi (1956-57)
excelled in political farsightedness.
In addition, the patent of pushing for structural reform in
Japan as an "ordinary country" belongs to Seiji Maehara, head of
Japan's major opposition, the Democratic Party, who stands more
than a cut above Koizumi in terms of strategic wisdom.
Though the Chinese Government never refuses to have dealings
with conservative and right-wing Japanese politicians, the Chinese
leadership finds it hard to reason with a political gambler whose
head is reason-proof.
Japanese economist Yutaka Kosai observed that co-operation with
China on environmental issues, energy saving initiatives and in
other respects is the biggest issue Japan has to address in the
21st century.
His remarks reflect farsightedness.
He continued to say that Japan-China relations cannot afford any
more twists and turns.
If Koizumi is bent on having his way and chooses to visit the
war shrine on August 15 on the eve of his exit from the prime
minister's office in a bid to fan nationalist feelings among the
Japanese public, he will end up in becoming a historical
sinner.
(China Daily August 13, 2006)
