By Dan Steinbock???
Since Richard Nixon's historic visit to China in 1972, all US presidents have pursued American interests cooperatively with China, but not without first trying to implement tougher policies toward Beijing.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan suggested that he would restore diplomatic relations with Taipei. During the 1992 presidential campaign, Bill Clinton denounced George H.W. Bush's trade policy with China. In 2000, George W. Bush criticized the Clinton administration for a "strategic partnership" with China.
During her recent visit to Asia, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suggested that other issues "can't interfere with the global economic crisis and the security crisis," calling for a "comprehensive partnership" with China.
In the past, the White House has opted for the path charted by the previous administration, but only after initial fumbling. Are things now different? Will the Barack Obama administration reverse a near-30 year track record?
There is reason for cautious optimism. The real tests are ahead.
Since the normalization of Sino-US relations in the late 1970s, the center of gravity of the US foreign policy has not been in East Asia.
Through the 1980s, Washington's attention was consumed by the Cold War. In the 1990s, it focused on globalization. After September 11, 2001, the center of gravity shifted to the Middle East, particularly Iraq. Now it has moved toward the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
At the same time, America's most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression highlights the need for multilateralism and cooperation - the two central themes of President Obama in his presidential campaign and the first 100 days in office.
This policy shift has gone hand in hand with another, which involves China and US policies in East Asia. On the one hand, the scope of the dialogue between the two countries has been broadened. On the other, the appointments of the White House herald a more pragmatic US foreign policy in broader Asia.
Since 2006, the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) has been the framework for the US and China to discuss topics related to bilateral economic ties.
Before the G20 summit in London in April, President Hu Jintao and President Obama established the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue. The strategic track is chaired by Hillary Clinton and Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo, and the economic, by US Secretary of Treasury Timothy Geithner and Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Qishan.
The decision to upgrade and broaden the dialogue reflects the growing importance of bilateral cooperation.
The "cooperative and comprehensive partnership" has been complemented by Obama's appointments, which reflect a more pragmatic policy in Asia.
During the presidential campaign, Obama's Asia team was led by Jeffrey A. Bader, former ambassador and first director of the Brookings China Initiative, who played an important role in rebuilding US-China ties during the 1990s. In 2001, he led the team that completed negotiations on the Chinese mainland's and Taiwan's accessions to the WTO.
Obama has nominated Kurt Campbell, former president Bill Clinton's top adviser on Asian affairs, to be assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs. With an extensive resume of work in the region, Campbell has worked closely with Asia's leading diplomatic, military and civilian authorities, including in redefining the Japan-US alliance.
Obama has named Lt-Gen Wallace 'Chip' Gregson, a retired US Marine general with years of experience in Asia, to the Pentagon post, focusing on security in the region. Gregson is among a group of retired generals who in 2006 demanded the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld, then US secretary of defense, holding him responsible for the US failure in the war in Iraq.
Along with the key appointments in the State Department and Pentagon, the selections of the key ambassadors to East Asia also herald a shift of emphasis.
In her January confirmation hearings, Hillary Clinton said: "America cannot solve the most pressing problems on our own, and the world cannot solve them without America ... We must use what has been called 'smart power', the full range of tools at our disposal."
The Obama administration will follow a foreign policy philosophy that blends the "soft power" advocated by Bill Clinton and the "hard power" embraced by George W. Bush. This idea was first developed by Joseph Nye, Harvard professor and former US assistant secretary of defense, who coined the term "soft power" and once co-chaired the Smart Power Commission in the Washington-based Center for Strategic International Studies.
Nye advocates strengthening the Japan-US alliance and supports US-Chinese cooperation. He has been confirmed as the next US ambassador to Japan.
Tim Roemer, former Democrat congressman from Indiana and an ex-member of the 9/11 Commission, has been nominated by Obama as the next US ambassador to India. Roemer has stressed the importance of a consistent engagement agenda with China.
Jim Leach, former Republican congressman, is reportedly the front-runner in the race for the post of the next US ambassador to China. While in Congress, he served as chairman of the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs and the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. The Republican Leach is a moderate who supported Obama's democratic campaign for president.
As the nominations indicate, the US administration is likely to conduct a pragmatic China policy, while supporting multilateralism and integration in East Asia. It also supports a trilateral US-China-Japan cooperation, which, among others, has been promoted by Kurt Campbell.
Despite his occasionally strong campaign rhetoric on trade and currency, Obama has built a foundation for policy shifts in Asia.
Along with strategic relations and resumed military exchanges, bilateral trade and investment will be the vital test of the broadened US-Chinese strategic and economic agenda.
As shown by new economic data, the impact of the global economic crisis on Asia has been swifter and often deeper than on other regions, partly because of Asia's dependence on exports and close integration into the global economy.
The deeper and the more protracted the global recession will prove to be, the more stagnated will be US growth and recovery - and the greater will be the strategic and economic pressures on US-China bilateral relations.
Today, US recovery, China's steady growth and the stable global environment are intertwined. In the ideal scenario, the US' China policy will build on the foundation of this symbiotic relationship in the region. In that case, both sides will win - along with the region.
The author is research director of International Business at the India, China and America Institute.?
(China Daily May 14, 2009)
