A mini-baby boom is expected to start next year as a result of
the country's family planning policy, an official has said.
Zhang Weiqing, minister of the National Population and Family
Planning Commission, said he expects the boom to last for more than
10 years and put great pressure on the government in its efforts to
manage population growth.
Speaking at a national conference on the rural population and
family planning over the weekend in Zhengzhou, capital of Henan
Province, Zhang said, however, that the boom will be relatively
small in comparison to those of the early 1950s and 60s and the
late 80s.
Zhang said that many of the children born in the years following
the introduction of the national family planning policy in 1973,
were now of marriageable age.
Also, a change in the law in 1984 that allowed rural couples to
have a second child if their first was a girl has also created a
spike in the number of people approaching the typical age for
marriage, he said.
Over the past 30-plus years, the family planning policy has
played a central role in stabilizing the country's population, as
well as aiding economic and social development.
Experts have estimated that the current population of about 1.3
billion would have been nearer 1.7 billion had the policy not been
introduced.
According to official figures, the average number of children
born to each family is currently 1.8, compared to 5.8 in the early
70s.
Zhang said the family planning laws will remain to maintain the
low birth rate.
However, despite the regulations, the country is still facing a
stiff challenge to keep the number of births down, he said.
"The desire to have boys or more than one child is deep-rooted
and still very strong, especially in rural areas," Zhang said.
"The contradiction between that desire and the current family
planning policy remains acute."
A survey conducted by the National Population and Family
Planning Commission last year showed that nearly 80 percent of
couples planning to start a family said that they wanted to have
both a boy and a girl.
In addition, 41 percent of couples living in urban areas whose
first child was a girl said that they wanted to have a second child
and hoped it was a boy.
Wang Linqing, a 33-year-old father from Beijing, told China
Daily that, "having two children, a boy and a girl, was one of
his biggest hopes".
That sentiment is not only much more prevalent in rural areas,
but also frequently made a reality, Zhang said.
Couples within the floating rural population, which is currently
estimated at about 140 million, often unlawfully have more than one
child outside their hometowns to escape government inspection, he
said.
(China Daily December 12, 2007)