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Will Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas issue another presidential decree to postpone the legislative election due on Jan. 25? It is a question that Palestinians, Israelis, Europeans and Americans are asking these days.
This question did not arise suddenly, but emerged as a result of a series of reasons, among which the controversial Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) is in the limelight.
Hamas has reiterated time and time again that they will never give up the right to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections, creating tension not only between the Palestinians and Israel but also between the ruling Fatah movement and other Palestinian powers.
Both Israel and Fatah, led by President Abbas himself, were exerting pressure on Abbas over the Hamas problem.
Some Fatah leaders are insisting that the general election should be postponed to prevent the situation that Hamas win the election at the time that Fatah is still in mire, fearing that Hamas has influential role in the parliament in the future.
Meanwhile, Israel want more, hoping Hamas will not only lose the election but also basically keep out of the election.
Israeli Defense Minister Shaoul Mofaz had frankly said that Israel wants the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) to postpone the election, if it will not be able to prevent Hamas from joining.
"It won't be for Israel's interest if the Fatah movement loose the election and Hamas takes over," Mofaz said, expressing the prevailing attitude among the Israelis.
The Israeli media even added the fuel to the fire by presenting this Israeli attitude publicly.
The Israeli daily of Yedioth Ahronoth reported earlier that Egypt's intelligence chief Omar Suleiman would advice President Abbas and leaders of Palestinian factions to postpone holding the legislative elections on Jan. 25.
Suleiman is scheduled to visit the Palestinian territories on Wednesday or Thursday to discuss latest Palestinian developments with Abbas.
The Israeli daily quoted sources closed to the PNA as saying that Suleiman will suggest Abbas to postpone the legislative election, leaving time for him to mediate between the two divided parts of the ruling Fatah movement, who presented two separate lists to race in the January election.
The sources revealed that Suleiman will also mediate between the Fatah movement and other Islamic and national Palestinian powers.
According to the Israeli daily, Abbas is probably expected to head to Cairo next week to persuade the Egyptians to press on the Palestinian powers, mainly Hamas, to postpone the elections.
The Europeans and Americans did not say it frankly that the election should be postponed, but began to practice pressure on the PNA by warning to withdraw EU financial aid as a tough weapon in order to keep Hamas out of the election.
EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana had said straightly that if Hamas wins in the election and becomes part of the Palestinian government, the EU might not be committed to offer the PNA financial aid that it pledged to pay for 2006.
However, Solana tried to find a solution for this crisis by urging Palestinian factions, militant groups and political powers, including the Hamas movement to condemn violence and recognize the state of Israel.
Hamas categorically rejected to drop out the election, saying the European and US positions concerning Hamas participation in the election is total rudeness and a severe interference into the Palestinian internal affairs.
Under such circumstances, some Palestinian analysts have raised a question whether Abbas or the Palestinian leadership would get weakened, surrender to these pressures and postpone the election.
If the election is postponed, the Palestinians will be the only loser, for they will be deprived from having such a legitimate national right and lose the chance to realize their democracy, said Talal Oukkal, a Palestinian political analyst from Gaza.
"I don't think that Hamas, Abbas or anybody else among the Palestinians, except some people in the Fatah movement as well as Israel for sure, want the election to be postponed," said Oukkal.
The situation is prone to be complicated, but Abbas still rejected the idea of postponing the elections, insisting to hold the election on its scheduled date.
Abbas has been unswervingly sticking to this view, although several Fatah leaders and senior members had called on Abbas for many times in the past few days to postpone the elections.
"I won't postpone the election," Abbas told them firmly.
Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat had earlier quoted Abbas as saying to US President George W. Bush during a telephone conversation this week that "election can be postponed only if I'm dead."
Musheer al-Masri, a Hamas leader who will run in the legislative election, expressed his opposition to the idea of postponing the election by saying that "election for us is so essential. It is a national due that would never be dropped. Postponing the election means that we will go back to the first quarter."
"Hamas decided to participate in the election because we wanted to become political partners in addition to fighting the occupation," he added.
Even other minor Palestinian groups, such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), threatened to pull out from the election in case it is postponed or Hamas is ruled out.
A prominent PFLP leader Maher al-Taher told reporters that intervention from the European Union, United States and Israel in the election is unaccepted.
"Any attempt to prevent Hamas movement from running in the elections means that we will not participate. This is democratic operation, which is the right of all the Palestinian people and all powers," al-Taher asserted.
Mahmoud Abu Tahoun, another Palestinian analyst warned that postponing the election at this time would bring disaster to the Palestinian people, while Israel would be the only winner of it.
He said that "no election, no truce with Israel. We will enter a cycle of violence for several months, therefore Israel would gain benefits and interests in their general election slated for March of 2006."
"I have the sense that the election will be postponed, because all indications say it will be postponed, but let's pray for the sake of our people it will not come true," said Abu Tahoun.
(Xinhua News Agency December 22, 2005)
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