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The second Palestinian presidential election in history ended on Sunday. Mahmoud Abbas, of the ruling Fatah Movement, took the lead over other challengers by a large margin and was elected the new chairman of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA).
Results of the election which has become a worldwide focus, brought about by the death of former Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, will inevitably have a profound influence on the Palestinian political map, its relations with generations-long rival Israel, and even the whole Middle East peace process.
Abbas's victory is not unexpected.
Palestine has realized a smooth transfer of power in a short period and maintained a generally stable domestic situation after PNA chairman Arafat died in November.
Since Abbas was proposed as a candidate for the chairmanship, the PNA, Fatah, and especially Abbas himself made full preparations for the election.
At home, Abbas has called for reconciliation and solidarity among various Palestinian organizations and factions. On the diplomatic front, he has paid visits to Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Kuwait, in a bid to improve and strengthen ties with neighboring countries.
In a move to present himself a moderate, pragmatic and rational figure and gain the support of the international community, Abbas has reaffirmed his wish to resume talks with Israel.
At the same time, with proper election tactics, he has held high the banner of Arafat and confirmed his place as the rightful Fatah candidate, in an effort to enlist support within the movement, and especially other organizations and in regions where his influence is relatively weak.
Political enthusiasm which is running high among ordinary Palestinians, limited interference on the part of extremist groups such as Hamas, some cooperative measures adopted by Israel, and voluminous support of the international community, have all made possible a smooth election process.
With Abbas' victory and the formal creation of the new leadership, Palestine will enter a new development stage.
It is expected that following the election, Palestine will face a realignment of various political forces. Abbas is well aware that he faces a major challenge: How to realize reconciliation among the various factions and national unity on the one hand, and carry out domestic reforms and re-open talks with Israel on the other.
With a daunting number of political factions, Palestine has been widely divided on a series of major issues, such as how to carry out political reforms and open peace talks with Israel.
This will place Abbas in a dilemma. On the one hand, he cannot drag his feet in regard to the reform program and Palestinian-Israeli talks only for the purpose of maintaining domestic stability and solidarity. Equally, he cannot solely pursue reforms and peace talks at the expense of much-needed domestic stability and national unity.
Considering his pre-election activities and media focus, it is expected that Abbas will focus on the following points when handling home affairs.
First, he will try to construct a power center with the pragmatic faction of Fatah at its core, while at the same time taking into consideration the views and positions of other factions with different political tendencies and proposals.
Second, he will endeavor to rectify the domestic security situation.
There are grounds for anticipating the newly elected PNA chairman will strengthen construction of the police and security forces. At the same time, he will also work to rein in illegal armed militia and strengthen management of firearms to curb violence.
Third, he will continue to pursue dialogue with various Palestinian organizations outside the country's territory and seek greater cooperation with them. He will also try to incorporate Hamas and radical Islamic Jihad into the framework of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO).
Fourth, he is likely to press ahead with necessary political reforms. Possibly he will promote an internal election within Fatah as well as legislative and local elections, to attract more women and young people into politics.
Fifth, he will work to boost economic development and improve the living conditions of the Palestinian people. Abbas clearly knows that he would win lasting support if his work, regardless of whether it is talks with Israel or domestic reforms, raises living standards.
With a high degree of popularity and support from the international community, Abbas would greatly consolidate his ruling status if he succeeded in the aforementioned areas.
Currently, there remains unity within Fatah.
However, the statehood-pursuing territory has not realized reconciliation and unity within its own sphere of influence. Hamas, Jihad and other extremist groups still go their own way and are unwilling to submit themselves to the PNA.
With the unfolding of the work of the new leadership and the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, it is to be expected that some existing contradictions will surface in Palestine and possibly intensify.
How to handle Palestinian-Israeli ties and pursue the interests of Palestinians to the maximum in peace talks poses another singular challenge to the Palestinian leadership under Abbas' rule.
The emergence of the new leadership has provided a new opportunity for readjustment of Palestinian-Israeli ties and the start of the Middle East peace process. It is expected that Palestine and Israel will restart peace talks and drag their strained relations off the bottom in the wake of the election.
Ahead of it the two sides gave signals on many occasions indicating a willingness to resume talks. Abbas reaffirmed on several occasions a desire on the part of Palestine to talk peace with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. He even openly condemned armed uprisings against Israel.
Sharon also reiterated his desire to resume talks with Palestine providing the latter's new leadership acts against "terrorism," he also affirmed Israel has no intention to rule Palestine. The pending swearing in of the Israeli Labor Party will also help advance peace talks.
It is predictable that, following the election, the number of Palestinian-Israeli talks and contacts at different levels will increase. These will involve how to implement Sharon's "unilateral action plan" and the "peace roadmap."
It is estimated that Palestine will still adhere to its principled position on the status of East Jerusalem, the full withdrawal of Israeli troops, and the return of its refugees. But at the same time, it will show necessary flexibility.
However, the resumption of peace talks does not necessarily mean there is a smooth path ahead.
There are no optimistic signs emerging that Palestine and Israel will achieve major breakthroughs in the issues-riddled peace talks, not to say the final settlement of their conflict.
The two sides are widely divided on basic positions.
With overwhelming superiority, Israel can afford to hold a tough attitude in the talks. So far Sharon has not given any indication he is prepared to make concessions to Palestine on such issues as the full withdrawal of Israeli troops, the status of East Jerusalem and refugee issues, although he said he will carry out a unilateral evacuation plan. This, in direct contradiction with Palestine's stance, will make talks very complicated and thorny.
Also, there exist within both sides the forces opposed to peace talks. As in the past, these forces will continue to exert pressure on their governments to disrupt or sabotage talks.
The US partial support of Israel and unwillingness to exert strong pressure on its closest ally in the Middle East will create obstacles in the path of peace talks.
(China Daily January 11, 2005)
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