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With the US-led war in Iraq entering its sixth day on Tuesday, some observers in Baghad began to believe that the war probably would not come to an end soon.
Such a view is based on Iraqi soldiers' unexpectedly tough resistance to the coalition troops on various fronts, especially in Umm Qasr on the southern most tip of Iraq; in Nasiriya 370 kilometres south of Baghdad and Najaf 160 kilometres south of Baghdad.
The United States and Britain had expected the Iraqi soldiers in these places, most of them anti-Saddam Shi'ite Muslims, to welcome the invaders with open arms. But instead, the Iraqis greeted them with bullets.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, in a speech on Sunday, echoed the observers' opinion. The United States had said the war would end very soon, Mubarak said, but all signs now indicate that, with Iraqi troops' fierce resistance, the war will be a prolonged one, and people's anti-war sentiments will grow even stronger.
Some observers maintain that the US troops' setback in Nasiriya on Sunday will affect their commanders' decision to send troops to other Iraqi cities.
The on-and-off heavy bombings on Baghdad have lasted for days. Iraq has set fire to petroleum to mislead US and British missiles and thick smoke is enveloping the whole city.
But nothing is certain at this stage. If the war is prolonged, the United States and Britain, facing mounting pressure at both home and abroad, would probably carry out more fierce bombings on Iraq.
If hopes for a quick win fade, Washington would be bothered by five headaches in fighting a long-time war, according to analysts.
First, the White House will meet stronger criticism from the international community. The United States, which launched the war without the authorization of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, has failed to win over the international community for the controversial war. Even some traditional allies have voiced opposition. Anti-war demonstrations have swept across the world as well as the United States in recent days. More than 100 countries have expressed opposition or condemnation of the war, and the number is still rising.
Second, Iraq's climate will bring major problems to the coalition troops trapped in a drawn-out war. Strong sandstorms and hot desert weather reaching almost 40 C will greatly cut down the battle effectiveness of the US-British troops and military hardware unless the war comes to an end before April when summer begins in Iraq.
Third, the United States would find it hard to bear the financial burden of a long war. The costs of almost 300,000 troops, expensive precision-guided missiles, costly maintenance and reparation of large quantities of weapons and equipment, all call for money.
Fourth, the United States is unable to stand increasing casualties in the war. The coalition has already lost several helicopters and fighter jets, dozens of lives with many others injured, which was apparently different from the "zero casualties" the US army achieved in the Kosovo war. Once the battles extend to cities, the troops will have to fight their way from door to door, trading fire with guerrillas everywhere, with massive losses expected.
Fifth, Arab sentiment will force the United States to confront ethnic antagonism. If battles drag on, the enmity would come from not only Iraqis, but also Arabs and Muslims all over the world.
Meanwhile, the process of the ongoing war has shown that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was well prepared for a long war. He placed his hopes on the resistance of the entire people to foreign aggression, on political confidence and on the anti-war sentiment of the international community. Although a prolonged war will bring huge damage to Iraq and cause heavy casualties, it may also lead to the renewal of diplomatic efforts. Influential powers may make proposals the UN for declaring a ceasefire or sending peacekeepers to Iraq.
(Xinhua News Agency March 27, 2003)
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