The United States and Russia are moving toward an agreement to slash their storehouses of nuclear weapons and to give President Bush a green light to push ahead with a missile-shield program.
The target is a warhead cutback of about two-thirds, with each country restricted to no more than 1,750 to 2,250 strategic warheads, a senior White House official said. The current level is 6,000.
Bush will play host to Russian President Vladimir Putin in Washington and at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, November 13-15. Weapons reduction and missile defense are at the top of the agenda, with progress on weapons cutbacks outpacing missile defense, so far.
The reductions are bound to be significant, but any understanding is not likely to be cast in traditional form with a precise schedule of what each side is bound to do, said a senior official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Not to be overlooked in the attention given arms control is the U.S. concern about Russia's transfers of technology to Iran, the official said.
After a three and half an hour meeting Thursday with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, Secretary of State Colin Powell said, "We are looking forward to the two presidents having a very successful meeting."
Ivanov, concluding a 15-hour stop in Washington, also was upbeat. He told reporters his discussions with Powell were "substantial and constructive" and that the two sides want to ensure "documents on the key issues" are ready for the meeting.
On a telecast to Russia, he said detailed, complex work remained to be done at the expert level.
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld now picks up the ball, meeting in Moscow on Saturday with his counterpart, Sergei Ivanov.
"I suspect that the ribbon will not be placed around the thing until President Bush and President Putin meet and sort through the several important issues," Rumsfeld said Thursday at the Pentagon.
Bush has reserved the right to abandon a 1972 treaty that prohibits national missile defenses as a way of discouraging weapons buildups, but would like Putin's acquiescence to conduct banned tests.
So far, the Bush administration is not crossing that red line.
Putin wants deep cutbacks in the 6,000 or so warheads the United States and Russia now have - to 1,500 to 2,000.
The concept echoes positively within the administration. But before setting a precise level, Bush is awaiting the conclusion of a Pentagon assessment of U.S. military strength.
At a White House news conference, Bush's assistant for national security said, "We believe that we understand each other better, that we are making progress."
Condoleezza Rice also said she would caution "against any particular deal at any particular time."
Rice is mediating a dispute within the administration over what to do with the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. She contends the treaty can be amended to allow the administration to test and develop the missile defense system - at least in the short term.
Others, including Rumsfeld, are more inclined to scuttle the pact that Bush calls a Cold War-era relic.
Relations between the United States and Russia are on the upswing and this is having an impact on the talks. They no longer are enemies, and Rice and other U.S. officials refuse to describe the discussions as negotiations - a description they find applicable only to adversaries.
Russia's unprecedented cooperation in the U.S. campaign against terrorism could help the two leaders come to terms.
On another front, the administration is asking Congress to amend a 1974 law that forced Russia to permit Jews to emigrate in order to have trade privileges in the United States.
The Jackson-Vanik law spurred emigration, and any curbs on Russian trade are regularly waived by the president. On Friday, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage planned to meet with Rep Tom Lantos, D-Calif, to try to remove any possible curbs on Russia in the law.
On another subject, however, trouble looms for the meeting.
Bush will try again to induce Putin to halt the spread of advanced technology and weapons to Iran as a means of countering terrorism.
On Thursday, Russia's leading state weapons exporter signed a contract to supply 30 transport helicopters to Iran, the Russian business daily Vedomosti reported.
( China Daily 11/02/2001)
