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China Construction Bank (CCB) is most likely to join Hong Kong's blue-chip Hang Seng Index (HSI) in September, in the index's first enlargement since its creation in 1969, local analysts said.

 

It will also be the first time for the benchmark index to include H shares, which reflects the growing strength of mainland companies as Hong Kong is exposed wider to the mainland's economy.

 

H-share companies are those registered on the Chinese mainland and listed in Hong Kong. There are more than 80 such companies in the city, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the total market capitalization by the end of May.

 

Analysts and retail investors welcomed the move, saying HSI is incomplete and unbalanced without H shares.

 

"It's important progress in HSI's history," said Patrick Yiu, associate director of CASH Asset Management. "The relevancy of the index to the market has improved."

 

The new index will offer retail investors a better picture of the market, he explained.

 

Nine Hong Kong analysts from different securities houses surveyed by China Daily said the mainland's third-largest lender CCB has everything needed to be a blue chip in terms of market value, influence and leadership in its own sector.

 

Bank of China (BOC), whose US$9.7 billion initial public offering hit the local market with a bang in June, was another hot pick, with seven analysts choosing it. But it can't become a blue chip unless its A shares are fully floated, a prerequisite to join the blue-chip index.

 

"I think BOC will be in the second batch to join HSI, at the end of the year or early next," said Andes Cheng, associate director of South China Research Ltd.

 

Other blue-chip candidates getting a lot of support in the China Daily survey included Huaneng Power International, Yangzhou Coal and Jiangxi Copper. Angang Newsteel, Anhui Conch Cement and China Shipping were also mentioned, but with fewer votes.

 

Analysts picked them from more than 20 H-share firms that have met the requirements to become blue chips.

 

In a landmark move to better track market movements, HSI Services Ltd, the compiler of the HSI, said on Friday it will include H-share companies in the index for the first time.

 

The names of the first batch of H-share blue chips, as many as five, will be announced in August, HSI Services said.

 

Cheng said joining HSI would give potential blue chips a big image boost, as it would help increase recognition of their shares among overseas investors.

 

"Foreign funds will feel confident buying a blue chip," Cheng said.

 

Many analysts believe the HSI shift reflects growing economic integration between Hong Kong and the mainland.

 

A number of mainland companies are looking to Hong Kong for fundraising and Hong Kong firms are increasing operations on the mainland.

 

Hong Kong's capital market has become more correlated with the mainland economy, thanks to mainland firms' listing spree in Hong Kong and deregulation allowing local lenders to run renminbi businesses.

 

(China Daily July 5, 2006)